Title:A Simple Scoring Model Predicting the Outcome of COVID-19 Patients:
Tanta COVID Score
Volume: 22
Issue: 6
Author(s): Mohammed Elhendawy, Ferial El-Kalla, Sherief Abd-Elsalam*, Dalia ElSharawy, Shaimaa S. Soliman, Dina Abdelhai , Maha M. Hagras, Mai Khalaf, Eslam Saber Esmail and Abdelrahman Kobtan
Affiliation:
- Department of Tropical Medicine and Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Medicine, Tanta University, Tanta, Egypt
Keywords:
Viruses, SARS, SARS-COV-2, pandemic, prognosis, prediction.
Abstract:
Background: COVID-19 is a worldwide pandemic with high rates of morbidity and
mortality, and an uncertain prognosis leading to an increased risk of infection in health providers
and limited hospital care capacities. In this study, we have proposed a predictive, interpretable
prognosis scoring system with the use of readily obtained clinical, radiological and laboratory
characteristics to accurately predict worsening of the condition and overall survival of patients
with COVID-19.
Methods: This is a single-center, observational, prospective, cohort study. A total of 347 patients
infected with COVID-19 presenting to the Tanta University Hospital, Egypt, were enrolled in the
study, and clinical, radiological and laboratory data were analyzed. Top-ranked variables were
identified and selected to be integrated into a Cox regression model, building the scoring system
for accurate prediction of the prognosis of patients with COVID-19.
Results: The six variables that were finally selected in the scoring system were lymphopenia,
serum CRP, ferritin, D-Dimer, radiological CT lung findings and associated chronic debilitating
disease. The scoring system discriminated risk groups with either mild disease or severe illness
characterized by respiratory distress (and also those with hypoxia and in need for oxygen therapy
or mechanical ventilation) or death. The area under the curve to estimate the discrimination
performance of the scoring system was more than 90%.
Conclusion: We proposed a simple and clinically useful predictive scoring model for COVID-
19 patients. However, additional independent validation will be required before the scoring model
can be used commonly.
