Radicalization and terrorism are global events affecting different countries
and present in diverse historical contexts. A historical account indicates the
development of terrorism in human history to shed some light on radicalization. There
are elements of radicalization in the dark history of humanity that still today bear
consequences on their victims and their progenies. However, at first analysis, terrorist
attacks occur unexpectedly. We used a theoretical approach to mathematical and
statistical instruments to make a forecast from available data. Delphi groups of
psychiatrists, experts in the study of radicalization, met regularly to provide joint
predictions about topics of concern presented as case scenarios. The data from peergroup
discussions were analyzed for drawing consensus and forecasting radicalization
and terrorism. Mathematical prediction models included probability estimates, Kappa
statistics, Boolean logics, fractal mathematics, and geometrical progressions. The study
supports the hypothesis that with sufficient data analysis and mathematical models,
radicalization and terrorism could be prevented using forecasting methods and prompt
prevention.
Keywords: Delphi group, Forecasting, Lone Wolf, Prevention, Psychology,
Radicalization.
